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THE DISTRIBUTION

Stay Ahead of the Curve

ISSUE #001

⏱ 3 min read

JANUARY 15, 2025

Summary: US scores 5.9 out of 10. More Americans are waking up earlier for work. Finance jobs are moving to the South. Consumer spending shifts towards experiences.

Market Pulse

How'd We Do This Week?

S&P 500

6,468

+0.04%

Gas Prices

$3.15

-$0.06

Mortgage Rate

6.56%

+0.03%

Bitcoin

$118.9k

-3.4%

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), CoinDesk, AAA Gas Prices

US Economic Health Score

Real-time indicators tracking the pulse of the American economy

from last month

The Economy

What this means for you:

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This Week's Recap

▸ PPI rose 0.9% this month, significantly exceeding expectations

▸ GDP expanded 3.0% annually, signaling steady economic growth

▸ Youth employment declined during summer months

▸ Finance jobs migrating South. See From Wall Street to Y'all Street below

Dawn of the Dead Tired

2019

2.1M

2024

3.7M

Workers Starting 3AM-5AM

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Census data shows more and more Americans beginning work between 3-5 AM - with over 1.5M more workers beginning work early (or late) in the day. Part of the reason for this trend can be attributed to the pandemic and the rise of remote work. The interesting thing is that those jobs that you would typically consider having such an early start - warehouse, delivery drivers - have only gone up 4%.

From Wall Street to Y'all Street: Finance jobs are moving to the South

Decline

Growth

2019 to 2025 change in Finance Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Data

In the past 5 years, finance jobs have grown significantly in southern states with North Carolina seeing the highest increase in finance jobs (23%) as well as other states in the south, South Carolina (16%), Texas (15%), Florida (15%), and Georgia (12%). In fact, the only states not in the south with double digit growth are Idaho, and Nevada.

Death of a Salesman, Birth of a Travel Agent

Services ████████████ +12%

Experiences ████████░░░░ +8%

Food Away █████░░░░░░░ +5%

Durables ███░░░░░░░░░ -3%

Electronics █░░░░░░░░░░░ -7%

Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023 Spending Change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Americans are spending more and more money on experiences rather than things. It's not just millennials, all ages are seeing shifts in their spending habits from consumer goods to services. A record high of 78% of consumer spending is on services and experiences. There has been a 23% increase in travel spending; revenge travel isn't over, apparently.

Professor Norm L. Explains

Today's Topic: US Economic Health Score

We created a health score for the US economy, think of it like Dave Portnoy's Pizza score. Similar to how Dave scores based on taste, crust, undercarriage, etc. we score based on things like unemployment, inflation, available jobs, etc.

If everything is in a good range, low unemployment, low inflation, high manufacturing index, more jobs added, we'll get a high score.

The Secret Sauce: We use machine learning, i.e., advanced math to get the most accurate score possible.

Next Week: Professor Norm explains Unemployment

Looking Ahead

Monday August 18th Home Builder Confidence Index is released: Last month was 33 indicating lower confidence. 50 or more indicates majority of builders feel confident about housing.

Tuesday August 19th BLS releases its state employment and unemployment numbers for July. Home Depot (HD 400.32) reports earnings.

Wednesday August 20th Target (TGT 104.25) reports earnings

Thursday August 21st Unemployment claims data released. Walmart (WMT 100.85) reports earnings.

Friday August 22nd The weekend begins!

What we're watching: Home Depot's business is closely tied to the housing market. It'll be interesting to see Home Depot's earnings and the release of the Home Builders Confidence Index.

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